New modelling tool could protect wildlife from offshore developments

The modelling tool has the potential to save wildlife while ensuring the effective and sustainable development of renewable energy sources.

Led by researchers at the University of Glasgow, the new modelling tool, published in the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, is the first of its kind to accurately predict space use of seabird colonies without requiring extensive satellite tracking data, which is not often available.

Seabird environmental assessment tools are used to inform planning decisions for offshore wind farms. While useful, current assessment methods can vary in accuracy and may lead to offshore wind farms being built in areas with high bird intensity. Conversely, offshore wind farm developments may be inadvertently rejected based on overestimates of seabirds at sea.

Many seabird species nest in colonies on small pieces of land, including clusters of rocks off the coast. From there, birds fly and forage around a local area at sea – their home range, which varies in size depending on colony size and location. Due to these characteristic behaviours, central-place foragers such as seabirds are particularly sensitive to environmental stressors in their local surroundings, including the development of wind farms, which may have severe impacts on colony numbers and wellbeing.

Using GPS tracking data from 8 Northern gannet colonies to verify their predictions, researchers have shown that this new tool approximately doubles on the predictive power of other industry standard methods. The tool was 73% accurate on average, in comparison to 41% and 31% accuracy of current seabird assessment tools. Current methods also over- and underestimated colony exposure to offshore wind farms in different scenarios.

Researchers believe this tool could be transformative for offshore wind farm planning, allowing developers to protect wildlife while also safely building sources of renewable energy.

Lead Author of the study, PhD Student, Holly Niven, from the School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, responded: “Accurate estimation of the impacts of offshore wind farms and other stressors on seabirds can help us make more informed decisions about offshore wind farm plans and protect the species living around our coasts.”

Additionally, researchers say the modelling tool could be used to accurately predict the space use of other colonial wildlife, including seals, bats, and bees.

Jason Matthiopoulos, Professor of Spatial and Population Ecology and Study Co-Supervisor, added: “Ironically, different environmentally positive activities, such as wildlife conservation and our progress towards green energy, can come into conflict with each other. Resolving these conflicts relies on good data, but, equally, on state-of-the-art computer modelling techniques.”

Jana Jeglinski, Research Fellow and Study Co-Supervisor, commented: “Many seabird colonies are located at remote islands or cliffs that make GPS tracking studies extremely challenging or even impossible. This method can predict biologically realistic home ranges and exposure for such inaccessible colonies. It can also forecast future home ranges given the size of a colony – this is important since offshore wind farm construction will drastically increase in the near future.”

The study (‘Towards biologically realistic estimates of home range and spatial exposure for colonial animals’) was published in Methods in Ecology and Evolution. The work was funded by the UK Government Department for Energy Security & Net Zeros Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment OESEA program.

 

 

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Read the article online at: https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/31032025/new-modelling-tool-could-protect-wildlife-from-offshore-developments/