February’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) sank to a score of 44.6 in February – its lowest reading since May 2020 and the era of covid lockdowns.
The February reading indicates construction output declining for a second consecutive month, with the speed of decline accelerating; January’s score was 48.1. Any reading below 50 indicates shrinking activity.
Residential building (index at 39.3) decreased for the fifth month in a row and was the weakest-performing area of construction activity in February. Aside from the pandemic, the rate of decline was the fastest since early 2009 at the height of the global economic crisis. Survey respondents cited weak demand conditions, headwinds from elevated borrowing costs and a lack of new work to replace completed projects.
Civil engineering activity (39.5) also registered a steep decline in February. The respective seasonally adjusted index was the lowest since October 2020.
Commercial construction displayed a degree of resilience, but at 49.0 output levels are still falling.
February data pointed to worsening demand conditions across the construction sector. New order intakes decreased sharply and to the greatest extent since May 2020. Survey respondents noted delayed decision-making among clients, reflecting squeezed budgets and concerns about the economic outlook. Some firms also noted the impact of cutbacks to business investment spending plans.
Inflationary pressures intensified, as signalled by the sharpest rise in average cost burdens for nearly two years. Around 38% of the survey panel indicated a rise in their input prices, while only 3% noted a reduction. Higher prices paid for raw materials, energy, transportation and wages were reported.
Despite all this, a steep decline in order books, with the government talking up its aspirations, expectations remain positive. Around 39% of survey respondents forecast an upturn in output during the year ahead, compared to 17% that forecast a decline. (Maybe they think things can’t get any worse from here.)
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which conducts the monthly survey of construction purchasers, said: “Sharply declining order books rippled through the UK construction sector in February, which led to accelerated reductions in output volumes, employment and input buying. Weak demand conditions were attributed to entrenched caution among clients, against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and lacklustre economic performance.
“Aside from the pandemic, total industry activity decreased at the steepest pace since December 2019. This was led by considerable reductions in residential building and civil engineering work, while a degree of resilience was reported for commercial construction activity. Survey respondents widely cited a lack of new work in the house building segment, due to soft market conditions and the impact of elevated borrowing costs.
“Construction companies remain optimistic overall about their growth prospects for the next 12 months, albeit less so than on average in 2024 amid increasing concerns about the broader UK economic outlook. The were also signs that rising payroll costs and purchasing prices have become a source of anxiety, with the latest increase in overall business expenses the steepest since March 2023.”
Brian Smith, head of cost management and commercial at Aecom, commented: “Construction output has persevered valiantly to deliver continued growth in recent months. However, the gloom that has fallen over the broader economy since the autumn appears to have finally caught up.
“Despite the well-known challenges in key sectors like house-building, the positive view is that the trajectory of interest rates is creating a more certain environment for developers and funds to press on with investment elsewhere.
“That said, contractors will be looking ahead to this month’s spring statement [from the chancellor] with some trepidation. While areas like defence infrastructure are benefiting from increased spending, wider government and local authority investment plans are likely to come in for scrutiny as the chancellor looks to balance the books to meet her own fiscal rules.”
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