Wall Street Brunch: Nvidia GTC To The Rescue? (undefined:NVDA)

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Bullish AI news from Nvidia’s conference could lure in investors shunning risk. (0:33) Fed’s Jay Powell will find it tougher to dodge tariff questions. (1:35) Bill Gross weighs in on tariffs. (5:05)

The following is an abridged transcript:

Help me, Nvidia GTC. You’re my only hope.

Amid a sharp selloff (Friday’s bounce notwithstanding) this week could prove pivotal for the market. Bulls will be looking for Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPU Technology Conference and Fed chief Jerome Powell and Co. for some help.

And with all due respect to the Fed, it looks like beaten-down Nvidia is the one that will have to jump in the Millennium Falcon and ride to the rescue. The question is whether the AI force is still strong with stock.

GTC kicks off Monday and CEO Jensen Huang delivers the keynote address on Tuesday. Some positive signs about demand and production could bring in buyers who have so far been unwilling to buy back into heavyweight tech favorites, even with valuations tumbling.

AI is approaching bear territory, with the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY) down 18% from the recent market high a month ago.

Looking to specifics, BofA analyst Vivek Arya is expecting to hear updates on Nvidia’s pipeline (Blackwell Ultra and Rubin), its position in China and how it stacks up to the competition.

The key near-term issue is the Blackwell ramp, which led to some higher costs and delays and resulted in margins declining to 71% from the mid-70s range.

Other areas of focus include the rise of application specific integrated circuits, with Broadcom (AVGO) and, to a lesser extent, Marvell (MRVL).

A day after Jensen Huang has his say, Jay Powell steps up to the mic on Wednesday.

The markets are pricing in dead certainty the FOMC will keep rates on hold – and Powell said recently there was no hurry to consider rate moves. But there will be the press conference – where the Fed chairman will be peppered with questions about the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation – and a new Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot plot).

Powell will do his best to avoid criticizing tariffs and the current uncertainty they are bringing (that would be a departure from his data-dependent mantra and there is no upside to a war with words with President Trump). But he may find it harder to sidestep questions about where policies are impacting the numbers.

During the COVID inflation surge, he put particular importance on inflation expectations in the Michigan consumer sentiment report. The latest figures showed year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.9% from 4.3% and 5-year expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.5%.

Unemployment fears rose to Great Recession levels while the overall sentiment index tumbled in what Pantheon Macro economist Samuel Tombs called a “horrific” report.

In the dot plot we may see a rare focus on GDP forecasts, along with rates and inflation, as the stock market frets about growth.

Wells Fargo economists say they “expect to see a modest downgrade to economic projections for 2025. The median December projection looked for 2.1% real GDP growth in 2025. But, the initial tracking data suggest Q1 economic growth will be weak, while tariffs threaten the outlook for later in the year. We do not expect a major decline in the projections, but a dip below 2.0% seems to be in store.”

“We also expect the FOMC will revise upwardly its inflation projections.”

They added they “would not be surprised for Chair Powell to make a dovish comment or two at the press conference that reveal a slight easing bias by acknowledging that the downside risks to the labor market have increased somewhat.”

Speaking of growth, FedEx (FDX) reports earnings on Thursday and the delivery company is considered a bellwether for global economic activity.

FedEx is expected to post EPS of $4.67 on revenue of $21.91 billion. Truist Securities initiated coverage of the company this past week, saying that FedEx will benefit from its push to integrate its Grounds and Express operations, “driving better efficiency and higher margins in FY26 and beyond.”

Also on the earnings calendar:

KE Holdings (BEKE), XPeng (XPEV), Tencent Music (TME), ZTO Express (ZTO) and HealthEquity (HQY) report on Tuesday.

General Mills (GIS), GDS Holdings (GDS), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) and Five Below (FIVE) weigh in on Wednesday.

Joining FexEx on Thursday are Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), Micron (MU) and Darden Restaurants (DRI).

In the news this weekend, President Donald Trump signed a spending bill crafted by Republican lawmakers that will fund the government through September. The legislation, which Trump had backed, raises defense spending by $6 billion and cuts $13B billion in nondefense spending.

And U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed that the FAA isn’t yet prepared to lift the current restriction limiting Boeing’s (BA) 737 Max production to 38 planes a month.

Duffy had visited Boeing’s Washington factory, where he met with CEO Kelly Ortberg and acting FAA Administrator Chris Rocheleau. Ortberg is scheduled to testify before Congress on April 2 about the company’s safety practices.

For income investors, AIG (AIG) and Merck (MRK) go ex-dividend on Monday, with the sharing of the green on March 31 for AIG and an April 7 payout date for Merck.

Walmart (WMT) and Kohl’s (KSS) go ex-dividend on Friday. Walmart pays out on April 7 and Kohl’s pays out on April 2.

And in the Wall Street Research corner, “Bond King” Bill Gross is weighing in on equities.

He said: “Trump’s moves so far are close to changes made in FDR’s first few months because if continued they significantly affect not just domestic policy and potential outcomes but global economies as well. These moves affect for now market volatility and business and consumer confidence globally.”

“Market strategists seem unable to pronounce ‘bear’ but fall back on historic examples of 10% corrections returning to prior heights. Slim chance,” he added.

“Interest rates (ARE) dependent on recession/low growth outcomes but tariffs are definitely bearish.”